Getting better at FanDuel daily fantasy baseball

Playing daily fantasy sports (or "DFS" to the cool kids) can be a lot of fun, if you enjoy simultaneously losing money and hating several baseball players at once. The concept seems so simple: you put together a lineup using any real-life players you want, they earn individual points for you based on how well they perform, and if your lineup earns you enough points, you win real cash dollars! Like this guy!

Wow! A whole $349! Just do that another 2,865 more times, and you'll be a millionaire!

That's not how it goes in real life, though. In real life, you put Miguel Cabrera in the lineup on the exact day when Brad Ausmus decides to give him a day off (zero points). You skimp on the rest of your outfield in order to save enough salary to put Mike Trout in center field, and he goes 0-for-4 (negative points). You decide to splurge on Chris Sale as your starter, and later that night the headlines read, "Sale gives up career-high number of home runs" (negative-negative points).

In real life, you're the fine print:

That's how you lose your money, and wind up hating several otherwise-very-good baseball players.

Daily fantasy sports: it's not gambling, it's a game of skill -- and the particular skill being referred to here is gambling.

There is some hope for your sad little bad-luck lineup, however, if you use this one little life hack: let Vegas dictate your lineup.

For every baseball game on any given day, betting sites post an estimated total number of runs for each matchup, so people can bet whether the game will go over or under the total. You're not going to bet, you're just looking for the highest run totals. Here's what some of today's matchups look like at Bovada:

The Blue Jays/Orioles game and the Astros/Rangers game are the two that project to have the highest run totals, at nine runs per matchup. The trick is to pick one of these matchups and then stack your fantasy lineup with players from those two teams. Either load up your roster with Blue Jays and Orioles, or load it up with Astros and Rangers.

Try to cluster your lineup as much as possible (don't pick the Orioles who are batting first, fifth, and ninth, for example, try to cluster it around the second, fourth, and sixth batters), because the logic is this: between these two teams, you should be getting credit for close to nine runs, and you don't necessarily need the slugging stars in your lineup if you've got the guys who got on base and scored ahead of the sluggers.

You get points for every guy in your lineup who crosses the plate, so why not try to score points off of every single one of those nine total runs that will score in this matchup?

Also, when your lineup still doesn't win you any money, at least you mostly get to focus your hate on a handful of guys from one team, instead of nine different guys from multiple teams.

Good luck with the 2016 season, fellow not-gamblers!
    Blogger Comment
    Facebook Comment


Post a Comment